U.S. stocks posted solid weekly gains even as markets contended with volatile headlines involving U.S.\u2013China trade frictions and an uptick in crude prices after Washington imposed sanctions on Russia\u2019s two major oil producers.
Small-cap benchmarks led the advance: the Russell 2000 Index and S&P MidCap 400 Index outpaced large-cap peers. Within the S&P 500, information technology and energy were the strongest sectors, while utilities and consumer staples lagged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although the ongoing federal government shutdown has delayed several key economic releases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics eventually published September\u2019s inflation report on Friday, October 24.
Headline consumer prices rose 3.0% year-over-year, up from 2.9% in August, but just shy of the Bloomberg consensus of 3.1%.
Core inflation\u2014excluding food and energy\u2014also registered 3.0%, marking a modest decline from the previous month.
The timing of the release was accelerated to enable the Social Security Administration to calculate its annual cost-of-living adjustment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Early readings from S&P Global\u2019s purchasing managers\u2019 indexes signaled a pickup in activity across both manufacturing and services.
The Composite PMI climbed to 54.8 from 53.9 in September, marking the 33rd straight month above 50, the threshold separating expansion from contraction.
Services remained the key growth driver with a three-month high of 55.2, while the Manufacturing PMI rose modestly to 52.2 from 52.0.
Nevertheless, optimism among producers slipped to its second-lowest level since June 2024, reflecting uncertainty around tariffs and policy direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Treasury yields oscillated through the week\u2014initially falling before edging higher ahead of the inflation data. This table is illustrative only and does not represent any specific investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. In local-currency terms, the STOXX Europe 600 advanced 1.68%, supported by broad gains. Headline inflation in the UK remained at 3.8% year-on-year for a third straight month, defying expectations for a rise to 3.9%. Preliminary PMI figures from S&P Global\/HCOB showed the Eurozone Composite Output Index rising to 52.2 from 51.2, its highest since May 2024 and above consensus 51.1. The European Commission\u2019s flash survey placed Eurozone consumer confidence at -14.2 in October, an eight-month high and better than the expected -15.0. Japanese equities advanced strongly: the Nikkei 225 gained 3.61%, while the TOPIX rose 3.12%. Expectations for a large stimulus package pressured the yen, which weakened to around JPY 152.9 per USD from JPY 150.6 a week earlier. Nationwide core CPI increased 2.9% year-over-year in September, matching expectations and up from 2.7% in August. Mainland indices rose amid a rally in technology names despite data highlighting soft domestic demand. China\u2019s GDP expanded 4.8% year-over-year in Q3, keeping the country on track for its roughly 5% annual growth target. Overall, the data underscore persistent domestic-demand fragility. Beijing announced plans to significantly enhance scientific and technological self-reliance over the next five years and to keep manufacturing\u2019s economic share at a reasonable level. The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) kept its base rate unchanged at 6.50%, with the overnight lending and deposit rates at 7.50% and 5.50%, respectively. The Hungarian economy shows dual characteristics: construction output has fallen notably even as order books grow, while retail sales and industrial production remain soft. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s central bank implemented a 100 basis-point rate cut, lowering the one-week repo rate to 39.5% from 40.5%, and adjusted the overnight lending and borrowing rates to 42.5% and 38.0%, respectively. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" https:\/\/dev.trivesta.com.au\/academy\/trivesta-weekly-global-markets-recap-highlights-and-insights-on-the-fifth-week-of-october\/<\/p>","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":3644,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-parts\/single-post-ai.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[18,42,10],"class_list":["post-3160","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general-investing","tag-equities","tag-global","tag-inflation"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/trivesta.com.au\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3160","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/trivesta.com.au\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/trivesta.com.au\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trivesta.com.au\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trivesta.com.au\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3160"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/trivesta.com.au\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3160\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3701,"href":"https:\/\/trivesta.com.au\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3160\/revisions\/3701"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trivesta.com.au\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/trivesta.com.au\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3160"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trivesta.com.au\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3160"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trivesta.com.au\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3160"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Yields on one- and three-year notes finished the week higher, while the 10-year yield drifted lower (as bond prices move inversely to yields).
T. Rowe Price traders remarked that investors increasingly expect the government shutdown to extend into month-end, complicating monetary-policy expectations and data flow.
Municipal bonds delivered strong results, helped by steady cash inflows and limited new supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\nIndex<\/th> Friday\u2019s Close<\/th> Week\u2019s Change<\/th> % Change YTD<\/th><\/tr><\/thead> DJIA<\/td> 47,207.12<\/td> 1,016.51<\/td> 10.96%<\/td><\/tr> S&P 500<\/td> 6,791.69<\/td> 127.68<\/td> 15.47%<\/td><\/tr> Nasdaq Composite<\/td> 23,204.87<\/td> 524.89<\/td> 20.17%<\/td><\/tr> S&P MidCap 400<\/td> 3,298.58<\/td> 74.69<\/td> 5.69%<\/td><\/tr> Russell 2000<\/td> 2,513.47<\/td> 61.30<\/td> 12.70%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Sources: Reuters via Yahoo Finance and Bloomberg.<\/p>\n\n\n\nEurope<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Regional Markets Gain Momentum<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Germany\u2019s DAX added 1.72%, Italy\u2019s FTSE MIB +1.44%, France\u2019s CAC 40 +0.63%, and the UK\u2019s FTSE 100 surged 3.11%.<\/p>\n\n\n\nUK Inflation Steady; Retail Activity Surprises<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Core inflation ticked down to 3.5% from 3.6%.
Following the data, financial markets sharply increased bets on a December rate cut by the Bank of England.
Retail sales expanded 0.5% month-over-month, marking a fourth consecutive increase\u2014boosted by online jewelers and technology retailers\u2014contradicting forecasts for a 0.4% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\nEurozone Activity Reaches 17-Month High<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The Services PMI climbed to 52.6 (14-month high), while Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.0 from 49.8, signaling stabilization.
Germany drove much of the growth; in contrast, France\u2019s activity contracted for a 14th straight month, the fastest decline since February.<\/p>\n\n\n\nConsumer Confidence Improves<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Across the EU overall, sentiment rose 0.8 points to -13.5, indicating a gradual improvement in household outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\nJapan<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Equities Rally as New Leadership Boosts Sentiment<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Investors welcomed Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader Sanae Takaichi\u2019s election as prime minister, anticipating that her pro-growth stance and expansive fiscal agenda could lift corporate earnings.
Her coalition with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) should provide relative political stability, even though the bloc falls slightly short of an outright majority; smaller neutral parties are expected to support key bills individually.<\/p>\n\n\n\nCurrency and Bond Movements<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The yield on the 10-year JGB rose to 1.65% from 1.62%.
Political uncertainty before Takaichi\u2019s appointment had dampened prospects for an imminent BoJ rate hike; markets now see December as the earliest window.<\/p>\n\n\n\nInflation Remains Above Target<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Energy and food costs were the main contributors, keeping inflation above the Bank of Japan\u2019s 2% objective.<\/p>\n\n\n\nChina<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Technology Shares Lift Markets<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The CSI 300 added 3.24% and the Shanghai Composite gained 2.88%, while Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng climbed 3.62% (FactSet data).<\/p>\n\n\n\nMixed Economic Signals<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Yet other figures revealed pockets of weakness: retail sales rose only 3.0% YoY in September (the slowest since November), and fixed-asset investment fell 0.5% YoY in the first nine months.
Industrial output beat expectations at +6.5% YoY, driven by export-oriented sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Years of housing-market stress and deflationary pressures continue to restrain spending. Encouraging consumption has become a priority for policymakers amid global trade tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\nPolicy Direction and Five-Year Blueprint<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
These objectives appeared in a communiqu\u00e9 released after the Fourth Plenum, which outlined themes for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026\u20132030) on economic and social development.<\/p>\n\n\n\nOther Key Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Hungary \u2014 Rates Held Steady; Inflation to Stay High<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Officials acknowledged that the global backdrop has slightly improved, yet geopolitical and trade tensions remain. They also warned that the decline in worldwide inflation has slowed, citing supply-chain fragmentation and high service prices as risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Headline inflation was 4.3% in September and core 3.9%.
Although the stronger forint has helped curb import prices, the NBH expects inflation to stay above its tolerance band through year-end.
Maintaining tight policy and positive real rates is viewed as essential to stabilize markets and achieve the 3% target by early 2027; thus, rates were left unchanged.<\/p>\n\n\n\nT\u00fcrkiye \u2014 Smaller Rate Cut and Caution on Disinflation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Headline inflation rose to 33.29% YoY in September from 32.95% in August, ending a year-long disinflation trend.
Officials warned that the process has slowed notably, with food prices posing a key risk.
While the bank pledged to maintain a tight stance until price stability is secured, it did not rule out further cuts\u2014though future moves will depend on incoming inflation data and its underlying momentum. Policymakers also stated they stand ready to tighten again if inflation deviates significantly from their target path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n